Thursday, March 17, 2016

Yeah, Rah, Bulldogs!!!!







It has been a good start to the tournament for Bulldogs, as Butler took down Texas Tech and Yale has delivered the first meaningful upset of the tournament, taking out Baylor from the surprisingly 1-3 Big 12 (haaaaa Wojt!!!).

 Image result for yale bulldogs

The rest of the early games have gone down without major upsets nor even a major scare.  Thus, let's get back to some quick stats on the final field of 152 entries in this year's Hopskis.  First, yep, 152 official entries as I mistakenly deleted an entry that was a duplicate entry name - from two entrants!!  Thus, When I Touch Myself, I Think of Bill Self is Michael Hoss's 2nd entry - not to be confused with When I Think of Hopski, I Touch Bill Self from Bill LeFever! 
 
Within this field of 152, special kudos go out to Raising the B.A.R. (Blaine Rowlette of Warsaw - ex-EB colleague), McConnell is Blockin' My Picks Too! (Kyle Bowers of Warsaw, ex-hoops teammate in the BSA scrums and entering this year from Belgrade) and 2000 All Over Again? / Is Ted Cruz a Synonym for DouchNoozle (John Springer, another ex-Warsaw ex-BSA hoops alum now somewhere in the USA) and I Got Big Hands.... (Mark Kalogeras, long-time KPMG Warsaw expat and now father of 3).  WHY you ask??  Aside from the many beers the 5 of us shared over the years, they are participating in their 18th Hopskis this year - thus, members of our select group of 5 to have been in each Hopski!!!  On top of that, Kyle is a 2 time champion (2003, 2010), Blaine a solo shot at the top (2000), Mark finished 2nd in 2005 and Springer shared some dough in 3rd in 2014!  Naz Drowie!!
 
Back to the field and the picks this year.  Here is how our pool broke down their regional champion picks:
 
 
No big surprise here as KU is the top seed, though 3 UConn picks is interesting and Maryland, as the #5 seed gets the 2nd most picks, while Cal, as #4 was shown no love!

 
 Out West it is the most open of the brackets (and certainly in my view the weakest).  #2 seed Oklahoma is the Hopski favorite with a wide open region thereafter.  This region could have a bit impact on the Hopski championship hopes as a separator.
 
 Out East some homers have Indiana picked, but only half of the pool went with the most talented team in the tournament - UNC.  In Roy We Trust indeed!!  Kentucky - really?!  31 of you??  What - the SEC has them prepped for serious competition or something?!  This is the other region that will truly create some separation in the pool.
 
 The Midwest is dominated by Michigan State picks, with 119 of the pool picking them, leaving just 27 for Virginia.  Interestingly - zero confidence in the #3 seed Utes of Utah.

Gotta Go - Game Face time as Hoosiers are tipping off!
 

Sunday, March 13, 2016

Quick comments on the Field....


Would it have killed the committee to leave out Michigan, Tulsa, ‘Cuse and Vandy and instead put in Valpo, St. Mary’s, SD State and Monmouth?  I mean - really?!  Those teams are ok and may win a game - but do they deserve it more than the other 4 who (I am pretty sure) were all conference champions that played a bad (or maybe not even a bad one) in the conference tournament!  Monmouth really, really deserved it wtih 23 road games on their schedule and big wins too.

How Michigan State - who lost 5 games this year and only 2 when Denzel was playing - one of those an OT game with Purdue on the road - did not get a #1 seed is shocking! 

The West region seems the weakest - with a bunch of "pretty" teams running up and down the court with a clunker of a #3 seed in Texas A&M tossed in there to boot.  Wisconsin Green Bay baby!!

All the hard nosed defensive tough teams you want to avoid seem to be in the Midwest:  Virginia, Butler, Purdue, Seton Hall, MSU, Dayton......

Hoosiers and Kentucky possibly (and a big question mark on that) in the 2nd round.  The Committee actually does have a sense of humor after all.  Calipari ended the home and home series - hopefully that game comes to be!

Big Ten seems to get no love - just 1 team in the top 12 of the country??!!

Pac 12 with 7 teams??!!  Really??  They paid some Standford grads to game the RPI system - it is all that I can figure.

Why is one region (West) completely devoid of Big 10 teams with 2 in 2 of the other regions and 3 in the 3rd??!!  What the....

After watching a few teams for the fist time this year over the weekend, have to say that West Virginia and Miami are two of the most impressive ones that I saw - even in losing.

Would love to have Indiana and Baylor switch places as that West is more to the Hoosiers liking I think.

Get those brackets in and feel free to share the invite with anyone for whom you can vouch!


18th Years - YEP - The Hopski is BACK AGAIN!

Every year it is a nope, not going to do it this year.  NOT going to stay up all night the first two nights (alone now - not like the good old Warsaw days with Bowers, Kwitniewski, Wojt and Iantosca fighting over couch space), NOT going to ruin my true enjoyment of the games by worrying about who I picked to win in a cloudy state of vision on Sunday night after the brackets are announced and MOST OF ALL:  NOT going to waste 6 hours in the next 3 weeks chasing Mark Iantosca for a $25 payment that he refuses to make on time for some unknown to mankind principle.

Yet, here I am, on Sunday early evening no less announcing the 18th Annual Hopski International March Madness Basketball Pool!!

The link is the same as it is every year (yet I always receive anxious emails during Championship Week of "hey, I have a new email this year.  Are you still going to do the Hopski this year?"), so simply click here:  HOPSKI INTERNATIONAL POOL WEBSITE after the pairings are announced (or possibly on Monday morning as this year the announcement is not until 1am or so and frankly, I will be in bed!) and create your entry any time up until this coming Thursday at 12:30 EST.  That timing should coincide with the first meaningful tip-off of the week as well as your first green beer of St. Pat's Day!

Rules have not changed, though I am always tempted as more and more entries seem to be picking all upsets in the 1st round except for their Sweet 16.  This does not work - as the "separation" upset points really come from that Cinderella team that makes it to the Sweet 16 by pulling off back to back upsets.  This year, I think there is a good chance that there will be multiple Cinderellas dancing in that second weekend (especially if she happens to draw the Hoosiers or Oregon as the team to get past!).

Payment of $25 USD (yes - USD and not PLN Igor!) should be made as a "PAYMENT TO A FRIEND OR FAMILY" via PAYPAL.  This is NOT an option for rookies beyond this Thursday midnight EST.  For returning Hopski participants, a 3 day grace period is all that will be accepted - Sunday Midnight!  NOTE, it is well appreciated if you just make payment along with your entry and do not pull a Mark Iantosca or Brandon Snow on me and force me to send rabid emails for the next 3 weeks to get you to pull the trigger on a $25 payment!!

That is all for now!!  Get creative with those entry names and with Trump & Co - there should be no shortage of material out there for hilarious entry names this year!!!

Good Dancing.......

The Commish


**For those meticulous ones - here are the full rules of The Hopski

 
OFFICIAL RULES
1. HOW TO ENTER: Entries will be accepted by internet (PREFERRED) OR email through the start of the first tournament game, at 12:30 PM EST 17th March 2016.  A fully completed entry will include selections of the winners of all 63 games main bracket games (WE ARE IGNORING THE FIRST FOUR - MEANING YOU MAY WISH TO ENTER AFTER THEY ARE PLAYED SO AS TO DECIDE IF YOU WISH TO PICK THE WINNER OR NOT) as well as a prediction of the total combined points of the two teams in the championship game.  In each round after the first round, the selected winning team must have been chosen as a winning team in prior rounds (e.g. you cannot pick a first round upset and then pick the predicted losing team to win in a later round);
2. ENTRY NAME:  Please provide a fun name for your entry, aside from picking the #13 seed to win it all this is your best chance to enamor the field with your wit, charm and creativity.  Best entry name as voted on by pool entrants gets free entry next year to the Hopski.
3. ENTRY FORM:  PLEASE enter directly on the website, however, any bracketed form is acceptable if received before the deadline.
4. ENTRY FEE & PRIZE POOL:  An entry fee of $25 USD, 100 Polish zloty or 23 EURO is required for each entry.  Prize payments will be in USD or the PLN/EUR equivalent of the prize pool on date of payment.  Prize Pool is split 60% to the winner, 25% to 2nd place, 10% to 3rd place and 5% for the 2nd chance pool.  Prize pool is 100% of collected entry fees less the Toilet Bowl and Best Entry Name and $29 for software and hosting (NOTHING FOR THE COMMISH - THE "LOVE OF THE POOL" CLAUSE).
5. PAYMENT REQUIRED BY THIS THURSDAY 9PM EST if you are a rookie or an unknown commodity to me!!  If your payment is not received, you will be booted out of the pool - NO EXCEPTIONS.  ALL RETURNING HOPSKI PARTICIPANTS get a 3 day grace period – so payment BY SUNDAY NIGHT!
6. USD ONLY PAYMENTS TO A FRIEND OR FAMILY VIA PAYPAL (WWW.PAYPAL.COM) using markhopski@gmail.com.  DO NOT REFERENCE ANYTHING RELATED TO MARCH MADNESS OR THIS POOL OR PAYPAL WILL SHUT ME DOWN!!!  JUST SIMPLY YOUR NAME as reference point and ensure $25 NET to the recipient - DON'T SHORT THE POOL!). I can also provide a PLN OR EURO account details for bank transfers (when will the US join the world in inexpensive bank to bank transfers, I ASK YOU?!). 
7. SCORING:  Scoring will be calculated on the following basis for each entry:
First round (32 games) 1 point per correct pick; Second round (16 games) 3 points per correct pick; Regionals (8 games) 5 points per pick; Regional Final (4 games) 9 points per pick; Final Four (2 games) 17 points per pick; Championship 30 points for picking the winner;  MAX regular points is 220.
8. CINDERELLA BONUS POINTS:  This will be a VERY wide open year I think.  Ensure that you do not miss out on bonus points and pick a few upsets!!  Bonus points will be awarded for each victory by a team which has a lower seed than the team it defeats.  For example, say a #14 seed defeats a #3 seed:  the entry correctly forecasting this upset will receive 11 bonus points!  These bonus points are awarded for EACH VICTORY by a team with a lower seeding than the team which it defeats.  The bonus point system should make it more interesting for people to pick upsets AND be properly rewarded!!!  Examples of how this works:
Round 1:         #5 Purdue vs #12 Harvard -- John Doe picks Harvard
Harvard wins, John Doe would get points for underdog bonus.
Round 1:         #4 Tennessee vs #13 Colorado -- John Doe picks Colorado,
Tennessee wins, John Doe gets no points
Round 2:         Matchup is #12 Harvard vs #4 Tennessee
John Doe picked #12 Harvard over #13 Colorado.
THERE IS NO UNDERDOG RISK IN THIS GAME. HE IS PICKING A HIGHER SEEDED TEAM ON HIS SHEET therefore even if Harvard beats Tennessee, John Doe will get no underdog bonus points.

9. THE TOILET BOWL AWARD:  You can even win by losing!  The entry with the lowest point total receives free entry in next year's Hopski.
10.  SECOND CHANCE POOL!!  Included within your main pool entry fee is free entry into the 2nd Chance Pool as from the Round of 16.  Details will be on the website and you must enter by Thursday the 24TH at 6pm EST to be eligible!!
11.  ALL DECISIONS OF THE COMMISSIONERS OFFICE ARE FINAL.  I CAN BOOT ENTRIES NOT ADHERING TO THE MADNESS CODE OF HONOR (E.G. TRY AND WIN!!).

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

For the diehards, Hopski Historical Stats

This is not exactly Stanford level analytics, but certainly some historical perspective is necessary to ensure that we do not start thinking that all of this bracket picking madness is pure luck (especially given that our 2015 Champion Kent Holding did not watch a game this year!).

Hopski International March Madness Pool HALL OF FAME:






ALL-TIME HOPSKI RECORDS

Just one new record this year as Lyon's Locks (Bill Lyon) managed to pick just 13 of the 32 winners in the first round as Bill employed the "Elite 8 & All Upsets" strategy. Nice try Bill…….32nd place and an early place on the podium are nothing to sneeze at!

ANNUAL AVERAGES

2015 was an average scoring year by Hopski historical standards, with an average entry score of 112.7 just above the all-time average of 110.3. Underdog points were 5th lowest of all-time and the 4.3% Champion Picked % was also 5th lowest of all-time (likely some correlation there!).



TOP TEN FINISHES

The Top Ten is certainly a distinguishing finish in the Hopski, albeit only the top 3 collect any winnings. Tracking the Top Ten finishes (or lack thereof) thus reflects those experts among us who seem to consistently contend.



A big Hopski Congratulations goes out to Yo BaBee (Stephen Miller of Bloomington, IN and my boss during the IU days of yore) who in 2015 and with his 28th and 29th entries over a 14 year stretch finally finished in the Top 10!!! Joey Brackets (Joey Wagoner) and ABK Anyone But Kentucky (Marc Powell - 13 years) also snapped career dry spells for cracking the Top 10 this year. Leaving this list of folks still looking to be CONTENDAHS just once!



Matthew P. Powell, another of my best friends from the IU days….15 years??? Really?? Then there is Mr. Schoenstein (fellow Budapest expat alum) with a whopping 23 entries finishing outside of the Hopski Top Ten!!

Quite a few names added to the above list this year and more so, these folks are in the "on deck" circle with 9 years and no Hopski Top Tens: Nick Adam, Julie Grundberg, Bill Lyon, Beth Paul and Victor Szczerba! Best step up in 2016!!

Ok, that is IT for this year's Hopski. See you next year (and look out for the Hoosiers in 2016 now that they have 6'10 Thomas Bryant coming to town!!